Btw I agree with Piercing at 5-5. I'm not sure about Cassie yet. Alien gets beat up by Jax. Imo Tarkatan beats Lao badly in the neutral. He beats him on the ground, in the air. Just make sure you're making him block a 50/50 before you go into rekkas or flip. If you just go into F13 xx flip or F134 xx flip, you're probably going to lose. Not saying those aren't 50/50s, they're just easier to block than other things that Alien can do.
It's definitely even or in Lao's favor, though, since he punishes so hard. I have it as even, currently.
Acidic has to settle for EX snag or pounce to option select rekkas and can't punish flip. Sure he has neutral control with the spray, but idk, I think Tarkatan does fine. Sonic seems to blast Dragon in tournament, so maybe since this match up is so unexplored and weird, we should take that into account? I don't know, on paper I think Tarkatan does fine.
I think Flamefist beats Tarkatan now tbh. He can punish flip with F1, option select rekkas with EX windmill punches, his projectiles give him some good neutral control since Tarkatan has none, he can actually anti air and trip guard Alien, he breaks his armor(even EX db2), Alien has a weird hitbox that gets clipped more often than other characters, when trying to jump over windmill punch cancels.
A little quirk that Alien does have in the Flamefist match up, is that he can break EX windmill punches with D4 xx snag after pounce on hit.