It's 6-4 Smoke, IMO close 5-5. I really don't think it's higher than 6-4.
My thoughts:
Sub's options are very limited midscreen, but he can hang. No iceballs or naked clones... but that goes the other way too. If you're not throwing out clones or iceballs, Smoke is unsure what to do. He has to get in, and trying to get in on Sub is scary. Since 2 is fast and hits mid, Smoke Toward, D4's and whiffed air teleports are all HUGE risks for Smoke in this MU. He wants you to be a naked cloner so he can just Smoke Away and throw SB's. Just be patient, Smoke will come to you. Be ready.
Couple of other notes. D4 Smoke on untechable knockdown and there's pretty much nothing he can do except EX Smoke Away, from my experience. Just D4 and pay attention. Smoke Toward can still be 212'd. Smoke Away can be D4~Slide'd on a read midscreen. Teleport whiffs and I believe you're at advantage. EX Tele you have enough time to see he did EX and block. Shake is hit.
Also, Ice Beam beats Smoke Away, so you can make a read if he has a pattern of using it.
Smoke loses in the corner, and if he's just Smoke Away'ing, he'll put himself there. Look for him to try and switch sides once he gets close.