I was actually contemplating making a thread on this match-up, but I see it's been done already.
So anyway, this is actually one of my favorite match-ups to play. I don't
main Sub-Zero, but I have dabbled in him a ton and I tended to have success dealing with Reptile players...however, as of late I've come to see how this match can favor Reptile.
Sub-Zero's not the kind of character that can zone Reptile. He can duck the Acid Spit, but the idea of jumping the Force Balls can get shut down quickly as Reptile can alternate between two speeds when throwing them. And unlike Sub-Zero's Ice Ball, Reptile can chip at his life from a distance. The Ice Clone won't help Sub to advance upon his opponent due to the nature of Reptile's zoning. Trading is out of the question, as a Force Ball will juggle Sub-Zero on hit...long enough so that even if Reptile is frozen, Sub won't be able to regain his footing quick enough to come in and do b1 2 1.
Sometimes he can get in an Ice Slide before Reptile recovers, and sometimes that will get blown up by a full combo on crouch-block. Too much of a gamble there.
As you pointed out yourself, the main goal of this fight is to corner Reptile and fucking rape him there, all while watching for his EX Elbow Dash (which can be interrupted in the middle) or EX Acid Slide (armored and hits low). You can't hope to win at midscreen unless the Reptile is atrocious at trading and keeping you out. Knockdowns
will give Sub-Zero an advantage as I don't find Reptile's Wake-Ups to be all that viable.
Get caught in a combo, you've lost about 35% - 40% of your life and will be facing a Force Ball set-up, then you'll have to go in again. I don't see Sub-Zero getting much meter in this match-up aside from sustaining damage, but if he does have some on hand you can force Reptile to respect EX Freeze even at full-screen. Should a Force Ball hit you during such a trade, you'll still have time to approach and land your b1 2 1 to start up pressure. When putting on the pressure, be wary of the Elbow Dash; at six frames, if you do 2 1, pause, and attempt to follow with more attacks, Reptile can read this and stop you with the dash...unless it can be stuffed with a d3? I have thought about this at some point, but never got to test it.
Again, don't clone just to clone. Even with a life lead, Reptile will find a way to catch up from a distance.
Stay on top of him. Save the clones for the corner.
That's pretty much how I see the match-up. It may still be 5-5 like I initially thought it was, but I'm not sure on this. I might have been succeeding in this match-up because a lot of Reptiles I play are in a hurry to trade rather than watch and read what I will do. Whenever I play smarter Reptiles, the challenge really picks up.
Qwark28