Cyrax: 4:6
Best tournament player I have experience against: Darth Arma
In my opinion, Cyrax is the strongest character in the game (bordering on broken) and totally shits on Kung Lao big time. Here's why.
Cyrax has absurdly threatening zoning. He can pepper the screen with bombs (which are unblockable) and lead to his 60-80% juggles, and has the best capture projectile in the game (net) which also leads to his 60-80% juggles (lol). Cyrax can turn a full screen game into a death trap maze where if you don't read the bombs right you're fucked. And that's only half his game.
Luckily for us, Smoke completely shuts down bomb/net shenanigans; if cyrax ever throws a bomb outside of a combo it's a free Tpunch punish, or smoke bomb if you're quick, so you don't have to worry about that.
Watch out for naked net from about half screen. Cyrax players have a tendency to do this and jumping over it is out of the question. Net has a higher hit box than the empire state building. If you're quick you can shake it, but if it catches you off guard just block. Be extra safe. You don't want to get hit with net ever.
BUT, Cyrax is incredibly powerful up close as well. And, to be perfectly honest, you're going to want to spend most of your time running away waiting for an opening.
Even if you block, cyrax is ridiculously dangerous. if cyrax forces you to block an attack you get sucked into his command grab 50/50; you have to guess whether he's going to command grab or keep throwing strings. If you guess wrong you eat 60-80% or get reset into the same situation. If you guess right, all you get is a relief from pressure (with a sweep or poke or tech). Biggest bullshit risk/reward scenario in the game. It's best to avoid this at all costs.
You want to approach Cyrax similarly to Kung Lao, but with obvious differences. Cyrax doesn't have the outright rushdown pressure that KL has, so he's vulnerable to poke pressure (d+1, d+4 > b+2) if you're ballsy enough to get in his face. He's just as vulnerable from sweep distance as KL but don't hang out there too long or you risk getting netted. Check Cyrax with b2,3s from sweep and hit confirm into smoke bomb or drift away.
Teleport is punishable as hell, but don't wait too long. You want to be throwing attacks at the sparkly shit that appears beside you before his limbs even come onto the screen. Otherwise, it will be too late and he can block it.
The real silver lining in this fight is the wake-up game. Cyrax's is balls. The only even remotely threatening thing he can wake up with is EX ragdoll which is no big deal. This means that you can really hammer away at him after a knockdown. Pressure the shit out of him with meaty 3d12s and b23s every time.
Because of this you want to fish for a knock down with sweep more against cyrax than any other character.
Also, be careful on jump ins. He's got his goofy air throw that can pull you down, but it ain't no hat spin.
Reptile: 4.5:5.5
Best tournament player I have experience against: Chris G
Reptile can be rough but it's doable.
First, reptile has a nasty zoning game with force balls and spit. This is hard for every character except Smoke to overcome (hooray). Outside elbow dash range reptile has NO options against Smoke. None. All he can do is dash up to you. This is where the crux of the match up is, how you respond to dash.
Reptile has a few options after a whiffed dash up: instant cross up, instant poke, throw a string or dash again. Depending on how well you read an incoming dash, you can actually beat out these options by just throwing a 3d12 or b23 in anticipation of dash (use 3d12 if you're right at the edge of dash range and b23 if you're further outside). You can't do this on reaction. If you see the dash, it's already too late. You can, however, neutral jump on reaction to a DASH if you EXPECT a CROSS UP. by the time you see the cross up, it's too late to neutral jump, however.
When you're inside dash range you must respect dash at all times. Block ALOT, but also be evasive. You don't want reptile to build a shit ton of meter because you just keep blocking his strings. A blocked dash is a full combo punish with 21 xx smoke bomb > (combo of your choice). Smoke's normals are all slow enough that dash will cut right through them so being aggressive is risky. The exception to this is D+1 and D+3, which seems to knock reptile out of dash on the regular. So, poke away
Reptile can be vulnerable to jump ins (kicks especially) and cross ups. His uppercut sucks and he has no real AA options. If the Reptile is good, he will dash away from jump ins/cross ups, but they're still safe for you.
Another thing to think about is when you're at sweep distance you can jump backwards in anticipation of a dash. Dash will only hit grounded opponents so the instant you leave the ground you're safe, and you will be coming down in the perfect position to throw a jump in punch and continue into 3d12 pressure. Jumping in general is a good strategy against Reptile, just don't get carried away.
Reptile doesn't have very good wake ups, either. Keep the pressure on with meaty 3d12 and b23.
The secret about Reptile is that, besides elbow dash, he's slow. Like, really fucking slow. His regular dash is a joke and none of his normals are very fast. Elbow dash is what makes Reptile good. Beat the dash and you beat Reptile.
Kabal: 5:5
Best tournament player I have experience against: AC1984
Kabal gets his zoning game busted the worst of all the top tier characters; shake actually increases the size of Smoke's hit boxes so Kabal can't even shoot fireballs above your head to keep you from jumping. (unless they're at the top of the screen, in which case you can Tpunch punish the jump.) And, the only time you will get hit with ground saw is out of a dash cancel.
Because he can't zone you Kabal will be doing more dash cancels than you can count. Kabal is a guessing game, straight up, and his mixups are intense.
When he dashes you have to respect the dash by blocking which allows him to cancel into ground saw/overhead swords/sweep/throw/cross up/another string. That's a lot of shit. A good Kabal's game is constantly changing and it can be tough to keep up. Every string has the potential to be a 50/50 because they can all be cancelled into overhead swords or ground saw at any time. Your best bet is to block low and then fuzzy guard the overhead swords (they're not that hard to see coming).
This match is more about knowing what Kabal's options are and then pinning down your opponent's tendencies.
I made up a cute little flow chart for Kabal's NDC mix ups:
Secret Tip: Don't fear the Nomad Dash. At least not right away.
the reason that Kabal's f3,2 > Nomad Dash is a good mix up is because of the THREAT of a dash. In reality, Kabal players rarely let the dash follow through after a blocked string; it's super risky and a full combo punish. Use this to your advantage. If you block f+3,2 you can safely assume that he will cancel the dash. So, as soon as the string is over let go of block and begin retaliating (sweep, d4 - b23, whatever). Don't be afraid of the dash winding up after you block a string. At least not until he catches on and lets the dash happen.
From half screen and farther Kabal players will try and check you with dash only to cancel it at the last second and follow up with a mix up. Again, they will rarely let the dash happen (full combo punish on block). So be one step ahead of them and instead of blocking, anticipate their assumption you will remain blocking and attack them as the dash gets close (with sweep, or 3d12. b2 will step forward into the dash and often get hit because you're closer than they were expecting you to be and don't cancel the dash in time). That way, your attack will hit them as they attempt a mix up, or at the very least, force them to block.
Also, respect EX nomad dash on wake up and as jump in/cross up defense. Play Smoke's oki game against Kabal the same way you do against other characters that can wake up with a launcher that you can block punish for a full combo.
Block > punish > rinse > repeat.
Nightwolf: 4:6
Best tournament player I have experience against: Jim Coastin. **He doesn't have much of a presence on TYM but, in my opinion, he's just as good as Lord of the Fly, the best known Nightwolf player who got top 16 (I think) at EVO.
Nightwolf is a bitch of a match for several reasons.
First, Nightwolf is stacked. Brutal specials, high damage juggles, 7 frame uppercut, nasty f+3 mix up, and a 7 (8?) frame combo starting jab with long reach make him tough for anyone.
Second, Smoke falls victim to the shoulder charge/lightning shenanigans just like everyone else.
Third, Nightwolf's most common/useful moves all beat EX shake.
And fourth (most importantly), Nightwolf escapes Smoke's wake up vortex.
Never ever jump at nightwolf. He has tons of AA: hatchet, uppercut, dash, and EX choke. you can CROSS HIM UP, but never jump at him. If you're right in Nightwolf's face it's not a bad idea to cross up punch, but be wary of EX choke. it has armor which will eat the punch and then connect. He won't be able to uppercut or hatchet on reaction, though.
The best punish for a shoulder charge is d4. The d4 > b2 trap is great against Nightwolf because most Nightwolf players tend to be very aggressive and don't often block after d4 which guarantees a b23 (it will even pull them out of shoulder charge every time). At worst they block b23 and you can drift away/past them. Uppercut should be a secondary punish; only used if they consistently block b23.
The shoulder charge is what makes Nightwolf immune to Smoke's vortex. Here's why.
Shoulder is a wake up and is safe on block. This is bad. That means if the Nightwolf player is savvy, he will throw it on wake up every time, regardless of what he thinks you will do. This is in his favor, because it hits you if you try for meaty pressure, and even if you make a correct read on the shoulder, the worst you can do is d4 > b2 (and he will block the b2, because he's savvy). This is a get-out-of-jail free card. If they begin doing this, jump backwards as they wake up. It's risky, but if timed right the shoulder will go under you and you can hit them with a jump punch on the way down, granting a full combo.
The upside: Shoulder makes NW susceptible to poke pressure, because all crouching attacks are safe from it. Just watch out for f+3.
Nightwolf also has a ton of moves that beat EX Shake. shoulder beats it, hatchet beats it, and (worst of all) fucking f+3 beats it. Stupid, I know, but true. So the moral of the story is don't EX shake Nightwolf unless it's as cross up defense.
A good strategy is to go for sweeps, and then cross up while he's on the ground. If he constantly should charges on wakeup, use the jump backwards strategy.
Mileena: 5:5
Best tournament player I have experience against: It was at ECT but I forget his handle…
Mileena is an interesting match up because her move set is a bit all over the place. It's hard to tell exactly what normals are coming until they're already on screen. The normals you want to be careful of are her overhead kick (easy to fuzzy guard if need be), her 2 hit low poking string, and her d+4. Not too much to worry about.
Mileena relies very heavily on her specials, specifically ball roll and teleport kick.
A teleport kick standing hit grants enough stagger state that mileena can safe jump into a free mix up and you have to block. Don't let that happen. Many Mileenas like to throw random teleport kicks because on block, she will often throw sais which, if positioned correctly, will connect. This makes the kick safe if you block the sais and can hit if you try to punish too early. Therefore, the best way to punish a blocked dive kick is with d1 > d1 xx smoke bomb so you can duck the sais but still get a good punish.
Whiffed ball roll can get Mileena in but is not very common. It actually has a deceptively long range and unless you're near full screen it will probably connect. If they do whiff a ball roll you can react to it the same way you do to reptile's dash, except you have a lot more time to do it in. So get ready to block ball roll. You can punish this with d1 > d1 xx smoke bomb as well.
REMEMBER: Mileena's "cannonball" after a blocked special is different from every character in the game; she can block the instant she touches the ground. This means you have to hit her in the air which messes up Smoke's big bnb's, so it's best to just use d1 > d1 xx smoke bomb.
Ball roll and teleport kick can both bust up wake up pressure too, so it's best to block > punish mileena on wake up until you teach her to not use wake up specials, then bust her ass with meaty 3d12s.
The bottom line is you want to do a little bit of turtling and be defensive against mileena while maintaining some of the standard hit and fade Smoke strategy.