But if they block your d3 you're at a disadvantage. It may work once or twice but there isn't really a guessing game after the painfully obvious set up. Smart players will just counter poke the d3
HPHatecraft posted a setup that allows you to invert and blow up every single wake up in the game and still get the 38-39% damage. Imma try and find it maybe
Yeah I mentioned that in the video, If they are are just going to block low on normal get up you can b2 instead of d3. Its hard to implement a pure a 50/50 mixup while still covering their delayed get up timings and wakeups. The greatest advantage of this imo is that you remain safe on all options while still implementing a decent mixup. The worst, like you said is that you get counter poked, much better then a full punish. Also this setup is just a base that works on most of the cast. The next step is to make it more character/variation specific. There are characters with bad wakeup moves where you can b2 or b3 in place of d3 that will beat their armoured wakeups. Like I said d3 just works well against most of the cast. I'm pretty sure there are characters that you can b2 or b3 and beat their armoured wakeups while still covering their delayed get ups (that the 50/50 you are looking for?). For now though characters with good wakeups will still need to be meatied with d3. But who knows, maybe there are 50/50 setups that can beat wakeups such as Kung Lao spin while still covering delayed get up. Got to put more time In the lab.
I saw that setup and wont comment on it because I am not too familiar with the in and outs of it yet. If it really does beat every wake up in the game then that its impressive. All they said is that it reverses the wakeups though. Did someone confirm that it beats every single wakeup in the game? Also I'm not sure how it deals with delayed get up. I've been meaning to to take that setup to the lab.
Edit: Sorry for the long post